http://www.crisisgroup.org The International Crisis Group (Crisis Group) is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict. en-us Copyright 2008 Crisis Group Thu, 28 Aug 2008 11:14:57 +0100 360 http://www.crisisgroup.org/rss/CrisisGroup.jpg http://www.crisisgroup.org http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5638 Read op-ed ]]> Wed, 27 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5637 Read op-ed ]]> Mon, 25 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5636 The Russia-Georgia conflict has transformed the contemporary geopolitical world. The urgent need is to implement fully the 15-16 August ceasefire, and most significantly, to ensure that Russian troops return immediately to pre-7 August positions. Current rhetoric in Moscow and Western capitals is eerily reminiscent of the Cold War and will do nothing to resolve the crisis on the ground in Georgia or repair the damage done to European security. The West needs to address Russia’s behaviour not by isolating Moscow, but by engaging it in a way that is both hard-headed and conditional.

Read full report ]]> Fri, 22 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5632 Burundi’s political crisis is not solved and may yet jeopardise the country’s future stability. The current political impasse stems from the crisis within the ruling CNDD-FDD leadership and President Pierre Nkurunziza’s refusal to conclude a power-sharing agreement with the leaders of opposition parties. To avoid any violence in the run-up to the 2010 elections, it is essential that political consultations are carried out to choose the members of the Independent National Electoral Commission and begin revisions of the electoral code.

Read more ]]> Tue, 19 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5633 Read op-ed ]]> Tue, 19 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5627 President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has turned Kyrgyzstan in effect into a one-party state, but its surface calm could soon be shattered if he does not deal with its real problems of corruption and economic crisis before winter sets in. A further deterioration in living conditions could spark serious anger among a public already worn down by power cuts, the steady increase in fuel prices and the memory of the previous grim winter. If anger turns to violence, it risks being brutal, destructive and xenophobic - and the remnants of the discredited opposition may not be able to channel demonstrations into a more controllable form.

Read more ]]> Thu, 14 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5628 Read op-ed ]]> Thu, 14 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5626 Read op-ed ]]> Wed, 13 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5624 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 8 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5618 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 8 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5621 Read media release ]]> Fri, 8 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5622 Read op-ed ]]> Thu, 7 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5613 Read op-ed ]]> Wed, 6 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5611 Six actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in July 2008 and three improved. In Somalia, divisions between hardliners and moderates within the Islamist opposition threatened an already fragile peace deal. Afghanistan saw a deadly attack outside the Indian embassy that killed scores, while other bombings hit Indian cities and violence increased in Kashmir, with reported ceasefire violations along the Line of Control. The situation improved in Serbia, where former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic was arrested and extradited to the ICTY.  In Colombia the rescue of Ingrid Betancourt and 14 others dealt a blow to FARC rebels. For August 2008 CrisisWatch identifies Zimbabwe and Sudan as Conflict Resolution Opportunities.

Read full report ]]> Fri, 1 Aug 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5610 Read op-ed ]]> Thu, 31 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5608 Sierra Leone has made much progress since the civil war ended in 2002, but it must still defuse social and economic time bombs to solidify peace. The 2007 elections restored electoral legitimacy, but building a lasting post-war political settlement requires a genuinely national project. President Ernest Bai Koroma must build public confidence in his agenda at a time when donor support is gradually being cut. To improve accountability and fight corruption, he needs to do more than call for “attitudinal change” and a renewed “social contract”. With most people still desperately poor, the growing numbers of jobless, socially-alienated youth present a perennial security threat.

Read full report ]]> Thu, 31 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5609 Read op-ed ]]> Wed, 30 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5612 Read op-ed ]]> Wed, 30 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5602 Read op-ed ]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5595 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5594 Read media release ]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5596 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5600 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5589 The Karzai government and its international supporters must become much better at countering sophisticated Taliban propaganda if they are to defeat an insurgency that is driving a dangerous wedge between them and the Afghan people. The government and its allies must make greater efforts to address sources of alienation exploited in Taliban propaganda. The international community must provide the necessary support and pressure for improved performance, while also examining its own actions. Countries contributing international troops must improve communications with Afghans on the directions and activities of the international engagement, including doing more to avoid civilian casualties.

Read full report ]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5593 Read op-ed ]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5588 Read op-ed ]]> Wed, 23 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5591 Read op-ed ]]> Wed, 23 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5583 Hugo Chávez’s radical course and increasingly autocratic Bolivarian revolution are under growing pressure from former supporters alienated by government mismanagement, food shortages, inflation, public insecurity and corruption. There is mounting resistance to Chávez’s push to merge his coalition’s parties and concern about his foreign policy and further concentration of power. If he fails to compromise and govern more transparently and inclusively, November municipal and regional elections could repeat the dramatic political setback Chávez suffered when his sweeping constitutional reform was defeated in a referendum last December. Only by ending attempts to drastically alter the 1999 constitution is Chávez likely to return Venezuela to democratic stability.

Read full report ]]> Wed, 23 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5584 Read op-ed ]]> Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5586 Read op-ed ]]> Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5587 Read op-ed ]]> Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5590 Read op-ed ]]> Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5578 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 18 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5581 Read media release ]]> Fri, 18 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5574 Over the past year, the West Bank has witnessed real progress, but there is a natural ceiling against which, without changes in the overall political environment, the authorities in Ramallah inevitably will bump. There have been gains in the West Bank, particularly in re-establishing order. But Israel has not relaxed its security measures, nor has the economy seen much growth. Plus, the paralysed parliament and harsh tactics against Hamas sympathisers are inconsistent with good governance. Under current conditions, the West Bank can no more become a model than Gaza can be effectively governed.

Read full report ]]> Thu, 17 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5573 With last week’s formation of a new government, the Lebanese crisis is entering a new phase focused on the 2009 parliamentary elections in which the Christian community will play a decisive role. In the context of intense Sunni/Shiite polarisation, the signing of the Doha agreement and the election of General Suleiman as president give the Christian community the ability to play the role of arbiter and put it in a position to advance community demands that have long been ignored. Barring a resurgence of violence, the Christian electorate will decide between the two major coalitions that have opposed each other since 2005.

Read full report ]]> Tue, 15 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5570 Major reforms to the dysfunctional Pakistani police force are urgently needed if the country’s newly-elected government is to ensure a secure state and efficient counter-terrorism measures. The current force is incapable of combating crime, upholding the law, or protecting citizens and the state against militant violence. A change in mindset and legislation is needed urgently, because the transition to democracy could falter if deteriorating security gives the military a new opportunity to intervene. The international community, particularly the U.S. and the European Union, should realise that helping the police and civilian intelligence agencies with training and technical assistance would pay counter-terrorism dividends.

Read full report ]]> Mon, 14 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5565 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 11 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5563 While the security situation in Iraq shows progress, Iraqi refugees remain stranded, jobless, deprived of essential services. Host countries and the wider international community must do more now and are ill prepared to cope with a new refugee crisis, should it occur. Up to five million Iraqis – nearly one in five – are believed to have fled homes, half of them across borders. Despite oil money, the Baghdad government has been conspicuously ungenerous toward citizens stranded abroad. The U.S., while contributing more than most Western countries, has admitted few refugees and provided far less assistance than needed.

Read full report ]]> Thu, 10 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5564 Read op-ed ]]> Thu, 10 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5556 An Indonesian government decree restricting activities of the Ahmadiyah sect demonstrates how hardline Islamic groups, which have little political support have been able to influence government policy. They have shown themselves more adept than other groups in developing strategies, building networks and lobbying officials to bring about change – everything that civil society is supposed to do in a democracy. The government has opened the door for such groups to press for greater state intervention to define orthodoxy and legislate morality, and the prospects for unrest have increased.

Read more ]]> Mon, 7 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5557 Read op-ed ]]> Mon, 7 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5603 Read op-ed ]]> Mon, 7 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5568 Read op-ed ]]> Sat, 5 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5554 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 4 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5555 Read op-ed ]]> Fri, 4 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5551 Nepal’s major parties should cooperate in a coalition government led by the Maoists, who won the April Constituent Assembly (CA) elections, to help the world’s newest republic avoid political instability. The International Crisis Group today released companion reports: Nepal’s Election: a Peaceful Revolution?, an extensive analysis of the 10 April vote, and Nepal’s New Political Landscape, which examines the major challenges remaining in a peace process that has made considerable progress but is still incomplete. The way in which political leaders cope with the election aftermath will determine whether the remarkable result delivers peace and change or further conflict.

Read full report ]]> Thu, 3 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5552 Nepal’s major parties should cooperate in a coalition government led by the Maoists, who won the April Constituent Assembly (CA) elections, to help the world’s newest republic avoid political instability. The International Crisis Group today released companion reports: Nepal’s Election: a Peaceful Revolution?, an extensive analysis of the 10 April vote, and Nepal’s New Political Landscape, which examines the major challenges remaining in a peace process that has made considerable progress but is still incomplete. The way in which political leaders cope with the election aftermath will determine whether the remarkable result delivers peace and change or further conflict.

Read full report ]]> Thu, 3 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://www.icg.org/home/index.cfm?id=5549 The international community must encourage reform tendencies in Guinea-Bissau to counter the risk of the West African country becoming a narco-state and political no-man’s land of interest to Maghreb criminal and terrorist networks. Despite 35 years of institutional incapacity, a chance exists for democratic reforms thanks to the signing of a Stability Pact by the three most important political parties. Fundamental changes are required to the way the country is run. Above all, army reform is needed to free the political system from military interference. Foreign partners must galvanise their efforts and seize what appears to be a genuine opportunity.

Read full report ]]> Wed, 2 Jul 2008 00:00:00 GMT